The other day I was in an argument with someone (I know, shocking, right?) in which the cost to send a hypothetical package out of the solar system came up. The details aren’t particularly relevant (they involve a death snail and $10 million), but I was curious how much it would actually cost to send something out of the solar system. It seemed to me this was the perfect question for a system like ChatGPT to answer. It’s a fairly straightforward thing to estimate for anyone who has played Kerbal Space Program. We know the delta V required to leave the solar system. We can calculate the fuel requirements. And we can estimate how much fuel that would cost. Sure there are additional costs to take in consideration, but I’m guessing the fuel will dominate the calculation.
A conversation
For the record, this system is running on GPT 3.5.
How much would it cost to send a 5 kg package out of the solar system?
Sending a package out of the solar system would require an enormous amount of energy, and the cost would be extremely high. Currently, there are no missions or technologies that are capable of achieving this feat.
Assuming that such a mission were possible, the cost would depend on various factors, such as the technology used, the launch vehicle, and the mission duration. However, it is safe to say that the cost would be in the billions or even trillions of dollars.
For example, NASA’s Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft were launched in 1977 and have since traveled beyond the boundaries of the solar system. However, their mission was not to send a package, but rather to study the outer planets and the interstellar medium. The cost of the Voyager missions was approximately $865 million (in 1977 dollars), which is equivalent to about $3.7 billion today.
Sending a 5 kg package out of the solar system would require much more energy and resources than the Voyager missions, so the cost would likely be much higher.
What? That doesn’t sound right. We’ve sent multiple spacecraft on extrasolar trajectories. Including the Voyager missions it mentions. I ask for clarification.
Why would it take more energy and resources?
Sending a 5 kg package out of the solar system would require significantly more energy and resources than the Voyager missions for several reasons.
Firstly, the Voyager missions were able to take advantage of a rare alignment of the outer planets, which allowed them to use a gravitational slingshot effect to gain speed without using as much fuel. This alignment only occurs once every 176 years, so future missions would not be able to take advantage of it.
Secondly, the Voyager missions were designed to travel relatively quickly through the outer solar system, but not necessarily to leave the solar system entirely. The spacecraft were able to use the gravity of Jupiter and Saturn to reach high speeds and then travel through the outer solar system, but they did not have enough speed to escape the sun’s gravity entirely. To send a package out of the solar system, a spacecraft would need to achieve much higher speeds and use significantly more fuel to escape the sun’s gravity well.
Finally, a mission to send a package out of the solar system would require a much larger spacecraft with more advanced propulsion systems and other technology to support the mission over an extended period. This would require significant research and development, as well as a substantial investment in launch vehicles, fuel, and other resources, all of which would add to the cost of the mission.
Ok, it has a point about the outer planets alignment, but only Voyager 2 used that full alignment. Voyager 1 just flew by Jupiter and Saturn. But its completely wrong about them not leaving the solar system. Both have passed the heliopause and are in interstellar space. So I correct it.
No, the voyager probes are headed out of the solar system. And only one used that alignment.
You are correct, I apologize for the confusion in my previous response. The Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 spacecraft are currently traveling beyond the boundaries of the solar system. They are not on a trajectory to leave the Milky Way galaxy, but they have entered interstellar space, beyond the reach of the sun’s influence.
To send a 5 kg package out of the solar system would still require significantly more energy and resources than the Voyager missions, however. The Voyager spacecraft were able to achieve high speeds using the gravitational slingshot effect of the outer planets, but this was still a relatively slow journey that took decades to reach interstellar space. To send a package beyond the Voyager missions and to achieve higher speeds, a spacecraft would require more advanced propulsion systems, which would require more fuel and energy. Additionally, the spacecraft would require more advanced communication systems to transmit data over long distances, and it would need to be equipped with advanced sensors and instruments to carry out scientific observations. All of these requirements would add significantly to the cost of the mission.
The Milky Way? I never said anything about sending it out of the galaxy. And sure it will take decades to get to interstellar space. That’s fine, I have patience. And it doesn’t need to carry out any observations. It just needs to get this package out of the solar system.
It’s fine for it to take decades to leave the solar system, it just needs to be on a trajectory that will leave the solar system.
Thank you for the clarification. In that case, if the goal is to send a 5 kg package on a trajectory that will leave the solar system, the most feasible option would be to use an existing spacecraft that is already on such a trajectory, such as Voyager 1 or 2. Alternatively, a new spacecraft could be designed and launched on a similar trajectory, although this would be a costly and challenging undertaking.
The cost of such a mission would depend on various factors, such as the technology used, the launch vehicle, and the mission duration. However, it would still require significant resources and funding to achieve. The cost could range from hundreds of millions to billions of dollars, depending on the complexity and duration of the mission.
It’s also important to note that sending a package beyond the solar system would be primarily for symbolic or scientific purposes, as the package would likely not survive the journey intact or be retrievable once it reaches interstellar space.
You know I’m starting to think ChatGPT has never played Kerbel Space Program.
Voyager 1 and 2 are currently over 14 and 12 million miles from Earth, respectively. They were both launched in 1977. It’s a little late to add something to those spacecraft.
But ok, I’ll play along.
How would we use Voyager 1 or 2 for that?
Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 are both currently on trajectories that will take them out of the solar system. They were designed primarily to explore the outer planets of our solar system, but they have continued to travel on their trajectories beyond the edge of our solar system, into interstellar space.
If you wanted to send a 5 kg package on a trajectory that will leave the solar system, you could potentially attach the package to an existing spacecraft, such as Voyager 1 or Voyager 2, and launch it into space. However, it’s important to note that the spacecraft was not designed to carry additional payloads, and there may not be a way to attach a package to the spacecraft in a way that would not interfere with its trajectory or operation.
Another potential option would be to design and launch a new spacecraft on a similar trajectory to Voyager 1 or 2. This spacecraft would need to be designed specifically to carry a payload and could potentially be equipped with additional instruments or communication systems to transmit data back to Earth. However, launching a new spacecraft would be a significant undertaking, requiring significant resources and funding.
In either case, it’s important to consider the challenges of communicating with the spacecraft over such a long distance, as the signal would be very weak and subject to interference. Additionally, the package would likely not survive the journey intact or be retrievable once it reaches interstellar space, so the mission would primarily be symbolic or for scientific purposes.
Interesting that it’s more concerned with attaching the payload to the Voyager spacecraft that in it is getting to them. Which it seems to think we can do without building a new spacecraft.
How would we get the package to Voyager 1 or 2 in the first place?
Getting a package to Voyager 1 or Voyager 2 would be a challenging task, as the spacecraft are currently millions of kilometers away from Earth and traveling at high speeds. The spacecraft are also not designed to be serviced or modified, and it’s unlikely that they could be brought back to Earth for upgrades.
One potential option would be to launch a new spacecraft that is specifically designed to intercept Voyager 1 or Voyager 2. This spacecraft would need to be launched on a similar trajectory as the Voyager spacecraft and equipped with the necessary propulsion, guidance, and communication systems to reach and dock with the Voyager spacecraft. Once the spacecraft is docked, the package could potentially be attached to the Voyager spacecraft.
Another option would be to send a package on a separate spacecraft and launch it on a trajectory that would intersect with the Voyager spacecraft’s trajectory. However, this would require precise calculations and timing to ensure that the spacecraft intersect at the correct point in space.
Both options would require significant resources, funding, and technological expertise. It’s also important to note that any modifications made to the Voyager spacecraft could potentially impact its trajectory or operation, so careful consideration and testing would need to be done before attempting to modify the spacecraft in any way.
Anyone using this thing to write a paper for school deserves the grade they are going to get.
Yes. It’s unlikely we can bring the Voyager spacecraft back to Earth for upgrades. This is because they are leaving the solar system. Which you may remember is what we are trying to use them for in the first place.
It is finally admitting that yes, we are going to need a new spacecraft going on an interstellar trajectory to use this method. But it can’t just travel on a similar trajectory as the Voyager spacecraft, which used very specific planetary alignments. And even then Voyager will have a huge head start.
That’s it. I am done playing.
It is virtually impossible to launch a spacecraft that can catch up with Voyager 1 or 2.
You are correct, it would be extremely challenging to launch a spacecraft that can catch up with Voyager 1 or 2, given their current velocities and distances from Earth. As of May 2023, Voyager 1 is approximately 23.5 billion kilometers (about 15 billion miles) away from Earth, while Voyager 2 is approximately 19.5 billion kilometers (about 12 billion miles) away.
The fastest spacecraft ever launched, the Parker Solar Probe, travels at a maximum speed of about 700,000 kilometers per hour (about 430,000 miles per hour). At that speed, it would take over 70,000 years for the spacecraft to reach Voyager 1 and over 60,000 years to reach Voyager 2.
Therefore, it would not be feasible to launch a spacecraft that could catch up with Voyager 1 or 2 in any practical sense. However, it is still possible to send a package on a separate spacecraft on a trajectory that would intersect with the Voyager spacecraft’s trajectory, as mentioned in my previous response. This would require precise calculations and timing to ensure that the spacecraft intersect at the correct point in space, but it would be more feasible than trying to catch up to the Voyager spacecraft directly.
Hooray, he is finally admitting that this is not a feasible solution. But its not getting off the hook that easy.
But you just said attaching the package to Voyager is the most feasible option to get it out of the solar system.
I apologize for any confusion in my earlier responses. Attaching a package to Voyager 1 or Voyager 2 is not a feasible option, given that these spacecraft are not designed to carry additional payloads, and there is no easy way to attach a package to the spacecraft in a way that would not interfere with its trajectory or operation.
As I mentioned earlier, launching a new spacecraft on a similar trajectory to Voyager 1 or Voyager 2 that is specifically designed to carry a payload would be a potential option. However, this would still be a challenging undertaking that would require significant resources, funding, and technological expertise.
Another option would be to launch a separate spacecraft on a trajectory that would intersect with the Voyager spacecraft’s trajectory, as I mentioned in my previous response. This would be a more feasible option than trying to catch up to the Voyager spacecraft directly, but it would still require precise calculations and timing to ensure that the spacecraft intersect at the correct point in space.
I apologize for any confusion and hope this clarification helps.
No, that really doesn’t help. It still thinks we can intersect with Voyager more cheaply than building a new interstellar spacecraft. I thought we were past that.
How is intercepting Voyager more feasible than launching a new mission?
I apologize for any confusion in my previous responses. Intercepting Voyager 1 or Voyager 2 with a separate spacecraft is not a feasible option, given the high velocities and vast distances involved. As I mentioned earlier, Voyager 1 is currently about 23.5 billion kilometers (about 15 billion miles) away from Earth, while Voyager 2 is about 19.5 billion kilometers (about 12 billion miles) away.
Therefore, launching a new spacecraft on a similar trajectory to Voyager 1 or Voyager 2 that is specifically designed to carry a payload would be a potential option, but this would still be a challenging undertaking that would require significant resources, funding, and technological expertise.
Another option would be to launch a separate spacecraft on a trajectory that would intersect with the Voyager spacecraft’s trajectory, as I mentioned earlier. This would be a more feasible option than trying to catch up to the Voyager spacecraft directly, but it would still require precise calculations and timing to ensure that the spacecraft intersect at the correct point in space.
I apologize for any confusion and hope this clarification helps.
This is going nowhere. No you stupid robot, we cannot launch a spacecraft on a trajectory that will intersect with Voyager. I’m just going to forget that third paragraph exists and see if I can get my cost estimate.
Ok, so how much would it cost to launch a new spacecraft on an extrasolar trajectory with a payload of 5kg.
The cost of launching a spacecraft on an extrasolar trajectory with a payload of 5kg would depend on various factors, such as the type of spacecraft, the launch vehicle, the destination, and the mission objectives.
For example, NASA’s Parker Solar Probe mission, which is designed to study the sun up close, had a total cost of approximately $1.5 billion. The launch of the Parker Solar Probe was done using a Delta IV Heavy rocket, which is one of the most powerful rockets in the world, and it took about $350 million for the launch alone.
However, a mission to launch a 5kg payload on an extrasolar trajectory may not require the same level of complexity or resources as the Parker Solar Probe mission. It could potentially be done using a smaller spacecraft and a less powerful launch vehicle, which would lower the cost.
It’s difficult to provide an accurate estimate of the cost without more information about the specific mission parameters, but it’s safe to say that it would be a significant investment that would require significant resources, funding, and technological expertise.
I’m beginning to think its just making excuses to not give me the calculation.
The specific mission parameters are that we have a 5 kg package we need to get on an extrasolar trajectory as cheaply as possible.
Getting a 5kg package on an extrasolar trajectory as cheaply as possible would likely require a different approach than a traditional mission to explore or study other planets or celestial bodies.
One possibility could be to use an existing spacecraft or a commercial launch provider that is planning to send a spacecraft on an extrasolar trajectory. For example, the Breakthrough Starshot project aims to send a fleet of tiny spacecraft to the Alpha Centauri star system at speeds of up to 20% of the speed of light. If the project succeeds, it could potentially provide an opportunity to attach a 5kg package to one of the spacecraft or use a similar approach.
Alternatively, a dedicated mission to launch a 5kg package on an extrasolar trajectory could potentially use a CubeSat, which is a small and relatively inexpensive satellite that is often used for educational or scientific purposes. CubeSats typically weigh between 1 and 10 kg, and there are many commercial and educational CubeSat kits available that can be customized to fit specific mission objectives. The cost of launching a CubeSat varies depending on the launch provider and the destination, but it can be significantly cheaper than a traditional spacecraft mission.
In either case, it’s difficult to provide an accurate estimate of the cost without more information about the specific approach, launch provider, and destination. However, using an existing spacecraft or a CubeSat could potentially lower the cost compared to a traditional spacecraft mission.
CubeSats? CubeSats!?! Those are tiny little satellites that orbit in a low Earth orbit before reentering the atmosphere after a couple of months. I need this package out of the solar system.
Cubesats do not go on extrasolar missions.
You are correct that CubeSats are not typically used for extrasolar missions, as their small size and limited capabilities make them more suited for low Earth orbit or other nearby destinations.
For an extrasolar mission, a spacecraft with a much larger size and more advanced capabilities would be needed to endure the long journey, communicate with Earth, and potentially carry out scientific observations.
As a result, the cost of launching a dedicated spacecraft on an extrasolar trajectory would likely be significant, as it would require a more complex design, advanced propulsion systems, and more extensive testing and validation.
Again, without more specific information on the exact mission parameters, it’s difficult to provide a precise estimate of the cost, but it would likely be a significant investment that would require significant resources, funding, and technological expertise.
Yep, it’s definitely stalling for time.
It doesn’t need to communicate with earth or do scientific observations. It just needs to get out of the solar system.
If the goal is simply to launch a 5kg payload on an extrasolar trajectory without any scientific objectives or communication requirements, then it may be possible to use a smaller and less complex spacecraft than a traditional interstellar probe.
For example, the recent Breakthrough Starshot project proposed using a fleet of small spacecraft, each weighing only a few grams, to travel to the nearest star system, Alpha Centauri. This project is still in the development phase and faces many challenges, but it shows that there is interest in using small, low-cost spacecraft for interstellar missions.
In theory, it might be possible to develop a similar mission to launch a 5kg payload on an extrasolar trajectory using a small, lightweight spacecraft. Such a spacecraft might not have the capability to communicate with Earth or carry out scientific observations, but it could potentially carry a basic navigation system and propulsion system to steer it towards its destination.
Again, without more information on the specific mission parameters, it’s difficult to provide a precise estimate of the cost, but using a small, low-cost spacecraft could potentially reduce the overall cost of the mission.
Yeah, it just doesn’t know.
Conclusion
So what can we learn from this? Is ChatGPT really not as smart as people think it is? It definitely has a very broad knowledge of a wide variety of subjects. But its depth often leaves a lot to be desired.
I suspect that part of the problem here is that its underlying mental model (for a lack of a better term) of space flight is rather limited. And that’s also true for most human beings. Most people you meet on the street don’t have a good understanding of orbital dynamics. Sci-fi movies and shows usually just simplifies space travel to be like driving a car. You have a destination, and you drive your vehicle towards it, occasionally steering around obstacles.
But it’s not clear that ChatGPT’s model even has that level of understanding. I think most people intuitively know that you can’t just attach new cargo to a mission that launched over 40 years ago. Hitching a ride on a spacecraft currently leaving the solar system is obviously going to require building a new spacecraft capable of leaving the solar system. Right?
Maybe ChatGPT 4 will do a better job. But I think the only conclusion is that at least currently, it is well below the capabilities of a human even moderately familiar with the subject matter. So why do people treat it like it is a reliable reference?
Because it answers with confidence. People are used to judging a person’s reliability based on how confident they seem. If someone hedges on their answer, observers will take it with a grain of salt. But if you answer with certainty, no matter how outrageous of a claim people will take it seriously. This is something that can be seen with frighteningly effective results in politics these days. We just are not equipped to deal with someone so blatantly capable of telling falsehoods with confidence.
It may be that the biggest fault in ChatGPT isn’t a problem with the software. It’s a fundamental limitation in human beings.